Autosomal DNA Database Growth

New intel on database sizes has rolled in over the past 6 weeks, so it’s time to update the autosomal database growth graph!  Sources for the new data points are at the end of the post.

 

23andMe typically reports their database size once a year in the early spring; expect new numbers from them at RootsTech.  If they have continued to grow at their last-reported rate, their database should be around 13.6 million.  However, it’s likely they’ve seen a decline in sales much like AncestryDNA.

Had the databases continued to grow at the rates prior to April 2018, AncestryDNA would have about 26.7 million people, 23andMe 17.8 million, Family Tree DNA 2.3 million, and GEDmatch 2.1 million.  Only MyHeritage has outperformed expectations, with 3.6 million predicted, compared with their latest report of 3.77 million.

 

Sources

12 thoughts on “Autosomal DNA Database Growth”

  1. Well, 23andMe cuts me off at a certain level of matches. Ancestry DNA shows be thousands of matches that I can do almost nothing with for figuring out the connection.

    I like MyHeritage the best for trying to make sense of matches (where does that person live, where did the people on their tree live, what are their ROUGH ethnicity estimates, who do we share (hurray for including all those more distant folks) and is it on the same bit of DNA? Ancestry has more trees but in my case, they are mostly for descendants of siblings of my direct ancestors (100% born in Europe for the past 300 years plus). Many people cannot figure out how to go back to Europe with their trees… sometimes they will get the “country” in the records but it’s misleading (based on geopolitics of 19th or 18th century Europe) or wrong or much too general.

    I have a paid kit with all these companies, as well as with Family Tree. Hands down, I spend the most time looking at the MH database. (I also uploaded to GEDcom long ago. I feel uncomfortable about a private company taking over. It’s lost it’s special function, in my opinion.)

  2. It looks as though the slow down in the sale of kits is continuing to slow Is there a more detailed trend line showing growth since April 2018?

  3. Leah, thanks for sharing.

    In the last few weeks, new matches at Ancestry has peaked up considerably after a slow period. Still, for me, very few trees compared to earlier time.

    Although I have tested at the top 4 companies, my time is spent at Ancestry, seldom ever accessing the other sites. So much genealogy, so little time, overwhelming.

  4. Clearly FTDNA has made major bets on pricing and advertising that have played to the company;s disadvantage. I’m sorry as they are a solid company even if they can’t restore my Family Tree to what it once was.

    1. Thanks for sharing this link. This sentence is notable, “The shift in the marketplace “surprised” CEO Anne Wojcicki, according to an interview she gave to CNBC.” If this were normal market saturation, it wouldn’t have taken Wojcicki by surprise.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.